July, in the domestic money shortage crisis ease, overseas risk appetite and market recovery and more stringent restrictions on capacity expansion policy is expected to wait for the good, the price of a short rally. However, the electrolytic aluminum industry overcapacity problem in the long term it is difficult to cure: low cost capacity expansion leading to production capacity, Xi Jindong not retreat, and to limit the capacity of the policy is difficult to implement in the protection of growth. In addition, on the occasion of the aluminum prices rebound, capacity of the discontinued may at any time to resume production, and downstream aluminum processing industry also suffered a serious excess pressure, expect the market demand driven industry and price rebound is unlikely.

Limit the capacity to hope that fear again lost

Recently, the executive meeting of the State Council proposed to support the adjustment of excess capacity, the integration of excess capacity of enterprises to carry out mergers and acquisitions loans, is strictly prohibited on the production of serious excess capacity of illegal construction projects to provide new credit. At the same time, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association organized a forum of 15 domestic key enterprises of the domestic backbone, preliminary reached a joint production of 1000000 tons of electrolytic aluminum. Chinese aluminum, Yunnan aluminum, Xinhen and Zhongfu issued the announcement, announced a temporary shut down of electrolytic aluminum production capacity of about 700000 tons.

However, the electrolytic aluminum industry blind investment momentum is still not "stop". In the next few months, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Gansu, Xinjiang and other places will have more than 1000000 tons of new capacity gradually released, the second half of the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply pressure has not been reduced due to cut.

In addition, on the occasion of the aluminum prices rebound, originally appear cut part of the capacity to resume production, which leads to "limited production and protect the price" or "to limit production and reducing the deficit operations fall.

Aluminum processing industry is facing the impact

In the upstream electrolytic aluminum industry capacity is difficult to curb the occasion, excess pressure is also conducted to the aluminum processing enterprises, which leads to the downstream consumption of aluminum and aluminum industry profitability is a drag.

Although the number of aluminum processing enterprises, but the production of low concentration, the production scale is small. A high level of modern large aluminum group. Data show that China's aluminum processing enterprises currently have about 780, including more than 1400 aluminum extrusion factory, aluminum foil factory more than 650, but large and medium-sized enterprises less than 20%, 80% of small enterprises, the national average capacity of aluminum processing enterprises is only 25000 tons / year. Maximum capacity of SWA for 80 million tons / year, and aluminum processing enterprises capacity in industrial developed countries average in more than 10 million tons / year, maximum capacity of 1.7 million tons / year.

In addition, the Chinese aluminum processing industry is low, and it is also one of the reasons for the shortage of China's aluminum export competitiveness. Although some aluminum processing enterprises in China are introduced, digested and absorbed foreign advanced technology and process equipment, through independent development and innovation, so that some single technology to reach or close to the international advanced level. But from the whole industry point of view, a lot of enterprises are still in the 90's in the last century, the production level, the system, mechanism, capital and technical aspects, the technical transformation of power.

The market expectations of aluminum foil is facing increasingly severe external challenges. In the 2013 China International Aluminum Industry Exhibition and Shanghai international industrial materials exhibition, the domestic aluminum foil production and processing enterprises, said the future of aluminum foil exports will be more difficult. Data show that in 2012, China's aluminum foil production capacity reached 3500000 tons, the output of 2700000 tons, capacity utilization of 77%, China's aluminum foil consumption 1850000 tons, 850000 tons of excess. Domestic aluminum price upside down, the appreciation of the renminbi pressure increase, anti-dumping cases increased, and future materials for processing of aluminum export tax rebate may cancel or reduce some policy changes, aluminum foil enterprise export environment to worsen.